RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Sainte-Marie–Saint-JacquesClose race
127QC projection for Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques as of October 1, 2026: Québec solidaire leads with 30.1% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (29.4%) and the PLQ (26.8%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, Québec solidaire wins 45% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.
Candidates and estimated support
The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| QS | 47.7 | 30.1 | −17.6 |
| PQ | 14.7 | 29.4 | +14.6 |
| PLQ | 15.9 | 26.8 | +11.0 |
| CAQ | 14.3 | 6.2 | −8.1 |
| PCQ | 5.0 | 6.2 | +1.2 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Hochelaga-MaisonneuveQS 10.9-pt margin
- Westmount–Saint-LouisPLQ 48.1-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.