RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
127QC projection for Hochelaga-Maisonneuve as of October 1, 2026: Québec solidaire leads with 41.0% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (30.1%) and the PLQ (15.1%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, Québec solidaire wins 80% of the time.
LeadingQS
Margin10.9 points
Win probability80%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
QS Alexandre Leduc incumbent
41.0%Win: 80%PQ Maude Brossard Sabourin
30.1%Win: 20%PLQ Janny Gaspard
15.1%Win: < 1%CAQ Béatrice Hodonou
7.3%Win: < 1%PCQ Elena Penta
5.6%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| QS | 50.8 | 41.0 | −9.8 |
| PQ | 16.0 | 30.1 | +14.1 |
| PLQ | 7.8 | 15.1 | +7.3 |
| CAQ | 18.8 | 7.3 | −11.5 |
| PCQ | 4.6 | 5.6 | +0.9 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- RosemontPQ 10.4-pt margin
- Sainte-Marie–Saint-JacquesQS 0.8-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.