RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Rosemont
127QC projection for Rosemont as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 37.7% of the estimated vote, ahead of Québec solidaire (27.2%) and the PLQ (20.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 86% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin10.4 points
Win probability86%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Pierre-Luc Brillant
37.7%Win: 86%QS Gisèle Pouhe Njall
27.2%Win: 13%PLQ David Lavoie
20.5%Win: < 1%CAQ Nour Aliyah Attié
8.3%Win: < 1%PCQ Mildred Mathieu
5.6%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 21.3 | 37.7 | +16.4 |
| QS | 37.6 | 27.2 | −10.4 |
| PLQ | 11.8 | 20.5 | +8.7 |
| CAQ | 23.1 | 8.3 | −14.8 |
| PCQ | 4.5 | 5.6 | +1.0 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Hochelaga-MaisonneuveQS 10.9-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.