RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Granby

127QC projection for Granby as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 30.4% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (26.8%) and the PCQ (18.3%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 65% of the time.

LeadingPQ

Margin3.6 points

Win probability65%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Jean-François Arsenault

30.4%Win: 65%

CAQ Claudine Leroux

26.8%Win: 33%

PCQ Marc-Antoine Huet-Mailly

18.3%Win: 1%

PLQ Claudie Bérubé

13.3%Win: < 1%

QS Méliane St-Amand

10.9%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	11.8	30.4	+18.6
CAQ	58.2	26.8	−31.4
PCQ	10.1	18.3	+8.2
PLQ	4.8	13.3	+8.6
QS	14.2	10.9	−3.3

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

Brome-MissisquoiPQ 3.1-pt margin
Daniel-JohnsonPQ 12.7-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.