ARCHIVED PROJECTION
Projection of October 4, 2026
Poll added: Pallas Data (fieldwork October 3), replacing the September 28 Pallas wave.
Polls as of October 4, 2026 · Model 0.8.1-regional · 5,000 simulations
These figures belong to this publication. They are not updated with subsequent polls.
PQ66(−4)leading29.0% · −0.2 pt
PLQ38(+4)leading23.9% · +0.5 pt
PCQ16(+1)leading19.5% · +1.2 pt
QS7(0)leading11.0% · −0.1 pt
CAQ0(−1)leading15.7% · −1.5 pt
| Party | Leading | Estimated vote | Mean seats | 90% interval | Most seats | Majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 66 | 29.0% | 59.3 | 40–75 | 94% | 37% |
| PLQ | 38 | 23.9% | 37.0 | 30–45 | 5% | < 1% |
| PCQ | 16 | 19.5% | 16.6 | 9–25 | < 1% | < 1% |
| QS | 7 | 11.0% | 6.9 | 1–12 | < 1% | < 1% |
| CAQ | 0 | 15.7% | 7.2 | 0–22 | < 1% | < 1% |
Leading: central scenario. Means, intervals and probabilities: simulation results, conditional on the model’s assumptions.
Changes in the leading party (5)
- Chapleau : CAQ to PLQ
- La Prairie : PQ to PLQ
- Maurice-Richard : PQ to PLQ
- Nicolet-Bécancour : PQ to PCQ
- Vachon : PQ to PLQ
All 127 ridings on this date
| Riding | Leader | PQ | PLQ | CAQ | PCQ | QS | Margin | Leader’s win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champlain | PQ | 28.4% | 13.5% | 23.9% | 28.3% | 5.6% | 0.1 pts | 41% |
| Saint-François | PQ | 22.7% | 18.2% | 17.3% | 18.9% | 22.1% | 0.6 pts | 35% |
| Nicolet-Bécancour | PCQ | 32.1% | 11.6% | 19.3% | 32.7% | 4.4% | 0.6 pts | 50% |
| La Prairie | PLQ | 26.2% | 26.9% | 22.3% | 14.4% | 9.8% | 0.7 pts | 47% |
| Abitibi-Est | PQ | 27.4% | 26.6% | 17.2% | 19.6% | 9.2% | 0.7 pts | 47% |
| Maurice-Richard | PLQ | 28.0% | 28.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 27.4% | 0.8 pts | 39% |
| Vachon | PLQ | 26.4% | 27.4% | 20.6% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 1.1 pts | 51% |
| Brome-Missisquoi | PQ | 26.7% | 25.1% | 16.3% | 18.0% | 11.3% | 1.6 pts | 51% |
| Chapleau | PLQ | 23.5% | 25.3% | 23.7% | 17.9% | 9.0% | 1.6 pts | 43% |
| Huntingdon | PQ | 27.3% | 25.7% | 17.1% | 21.4% | 7.1% | 1.6 pts | 47% |
| Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | PQ | 28.1% | 12.8% | 17.7% | 15.3% | 25.8% | 2.4 pts | 58% |
| Granby | PQ | 29.4% | 13.6% | 26.7% | 19.1% | 10.7% | 2.7 pts | 61% |
| Papineau | PQ | 25.9% | 18.2% | 22.7% | 22.8% | 9.6% | 3.2 pts | 46% |
| Ungava | PLQ | 26.8% | 30.6% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 17.4% | 3.8 pts | 69% |
| Drummond–Bois-Francs | PQ | 31.7% | 11.2% | 21.6% | 27.9% | 7.1% | 3.8 pts | 64% |
| Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques | QS | 27.8% | 26.8% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 31.8% | 3.9 pts | 56% |
| Mégantic | PCQ | 27.5% | 13.0% | 19.2% | 31.7% | 8.4% | 4.2 pts | 68% |
| Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | PQ | 32.3% | 12.7% | 19.1% | 28.1% | 7.8% | 4.2 pts | 71% |
| Jean-Lesage | QS | 24.5% | 13.5% | 6.1% | 25.4% | 29.7% | 4.3 pts | 59% |
| Chicoutimi | PQ | 33.9% | 10.9% | 29.6% | 16.8% | 8.8% | 4.4 pts | 67% |
| Charlesbourg | PCQ | 29.1% | 15.9% | 12.7% | 33.6% | 7.9% | 4.6 pts | 71% |
| Vanier-Les Rivières | PCQ | 28.1% | 16.6% | 14.7% | 32.7% | 7.1% | 4.6 pts | 71% |
| Trois-Rivières | PQ | 30.1% | 13.3% | 25.4% | 19.7% | 11.2% | 4.7 pts | 69% |
| Maskinongé | PQ | 30.6% | 13.0% | 24.4% | 25.2% | 6.1% | 5.4 pts | 64% |
| Orford | PLQ | 26.8% | 32.2% | 13.4% | 16.7% | 10.3% | 5.4 pts | 74% |
| Blainville | PQ | 29.8% | 20.9% | 24.0% | 14.2% | 11.0% | 5.8 pts | 70% |
| Côte-du-Sud | PCQ | 27.2% | 14.2% | 19.8% | 33.2% | 5.3% | 6.0 pts | 75% |
| Repentigny | PQ | 33.2% | 19.6% | 26.6% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 6.6 pts | 75% |
| Richmond | PQ | 29.1% | 14.0% | 17.7% | 22.5% | 16.6% | 6.7 pts | 77% |
| Louis-Hébert | PQ | 32.6% | 20.1% | 14.0% | 25.9% | 7.1% | 6.7 pts | 81% |
| Iberville | PQ | 32.0% | 13.9% | 25.4% | 18.3% | 10.0% | 6.7 pts | 76% |
| Groulx | PQ | 29.7% | 20.9% | 23.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 6.8 pts | 73% |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie | PQ | 32.3% | 11.2% | 21.1% | 25.5% | 9.7% | 6.9 pts | 77% |
| Lévis | PCQ | 27.1% | 14.6% | 17.3% | 34.1% | 6.6% | 7.0 pts | 81% |
| Rosemont | PQ | 36.2% | 20.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 29.1% | 7.1 pts | 78% |
| Laviolette–Saint-Maurice | PQ | 33.8% | 13.0% | 20.6% | 26.3% | 5.8% | 7.4 pts | 83% |
| Jean-Talon | PQ | 33.7% | 25.9% | 5.1% | 19.2% | 15.6% | 7.8 pts | 83% |
| Beauharnois | PQ | 34.2% | 14.3% | 26.0% | 15.9% | 9.1% | 8.2 pts | 80% |
| Argenteuil | PQ | 31.2% | 22.7% | 16.3% | 21.9% | 5.7% | 8.6 pts | 79% |
| Taschereau | PQ | 38.0% | 14.6% | 1.6% | 16.7% | 28.6% | 9.4 pts | 84% |
| Sherbrooke | QS | 24.3% | 15.1% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 33.9% | 9.7 pts | 81% |
| Laurier-Dorion | QS | 19.3% | 28.6% | 3.1% | 7.9% | 38.6% | 9.9 pts | 79% |
| L'Assomption | PQ | 34.3% | 14.1% | 24.3% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 10.0 pts | 85% |
| Les Plaines | PQ | 32.4% | 16.9% | 22.3% | 17.4% | 10.5% | 10.1 pts | 85% |
| Chambly | PQ | 33.7% | 16.5% | 23.5% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 10.1 pts | 86% |
| Gatineau | PLQ | 23.0% | 33.3% | 17.4% | 18.3% | 7.4% | 10.3 pts | 84% |
| Mirabel | PQ | 33.2% | 15.9% | 22.8% | 16.6% | 11.4% | 10.4 pts | 86% |
| Jonquière | PQ | 39.5% | 8.8% | 28.8% | 17.1% | 5.6% | 10.7 pts | 85% |
| Daniel-Johnson | PQ | 33.7% | 12.6% | 20.2% | 22.9% | 9.8% | 10.8 pts | 88% |
| Rousseau | PQ | 34.7% | 10.3% | 23.5% | 21.9% | 9.4% | 11.2 pts | 87% |
| Sanguinet | PQ | 32.4% | 19.9% | 20.8% | 16.0% | 10.2% | 11.6 pts | 88% |
| Montarville | PQ | 34.0% | 22.3% | 21.3% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 11.7 pts | 88% |
| Arthabaska-L’Érable | PCQ | 24.8% | 11.3% | 21.2% | 36.8% | 5.7% | 12.0 pts | 88% |
| Borduas | PQ | 37.1% | 13.1% | 25.1% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 12.0 pts | 89% |
| Masson | PQ | 35.5% | 16.9% | 23.4% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 12.1 pts | 90% |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques | PQ | 35.9% | 11.4% | 23.5% | 19.0% | 10.1% | 12.4 pts | 90% |
| Dubuc | PQ | 37.9% | 9.6% | 25.4% | 19.7% | 7.1% | 12.5 pts | 89% |
| Sainte-Rose | PLQ | 23.9% | 36.4% | 15.6% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 12.5 pts | 91% |
| Saint-Hyacinthe | PQ | 36.3% | 12.4% | 23.5% | 17.4% | 9.7% | 12.8 pts | 90% |
| Deux-Montagnes | PQ | 33.1% | 20.3% | 19.9% | 14.6% | 11.3% | 12.8 pts | 91% |
| Saint-Jérôme | PQ | 36.4% | 12.0% | 22.7% | 15.1% | 13.1% | 13.7 pts | 91% |
| René-Lévesque | PQ | 41.9% | 7.9% | 28.2% | 17.6% | 4.2% | 13.7 pts | 90% |
| Terrebonne | PQ | 36.2% | 19.1% | 22.3% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 14.0 pts | 92% |
| Saint-Jean | PQ | 37.0% | 14.5% | 22.9% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 14.1 pts | 93% |
| Châteauguay | PLQ | 23.1% | 37.4% | 16.0% | 13.6% | 9.3% | 14.3 pts | 93% |
| Pointe-aux-Trembles | PQ | 35.6% | 19.6% | 21.3% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 14.3 pts | 93% |
| Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | QS | 28.6% | 15.1% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 43.0% | 14.4 pts | 87% |
| Gouin | QS | 27.7% | 17.4% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 42.6% | 14.9 pts | 88% |
| Richelieu | PQ | 40.4% | 11.8% | 25.4% | 15.6% | 6.5% | 15.0 pts | 92% |
| Taillon | PQ | 36.6% | 21.6% | 15.7% | 10.3% | 15.3% | 15.1 pts | 96% |
| Bellefeuille | PQ | 36.0% | 12.6% | 20.9% | 17.4% | 12.4% | 15.1 pts | 93% |
| Verchères | PQ | 39.0% | 13.5% | 23.6% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 15.4 pts | 94% |
| Soulanges | PLQ | 21.1% | 36.6% | 16.9% | 17.1% | 7.0% | 15.5 pts | 92% |
| Montmorency | PCQ | 24.1% | 13.5% | 14.9% | 40.3% | 6.9% | 16.2 pts | 97% |
| Verdun | PLQ | 17.8% | 41.8% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 25.4% | 16.4 pts | 94% |
| Hull | PLQ | 22.3% | 39.2% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 16.9 pts | 96% |
| Labelle | PQ | 39.2% | 13.3% | 21.8% | 17.1% | 8.3% | 17.4 pts | 96% |
| Roberval | PQ | 41.0% | 12.4% | 23.5% | 19.3% | 3.5% | 17.5 pts | 95% |
| Mercier | QS | 24.7% | 21.8% | 2.9% | 6.1% | 42.5% | 17.7 pts | 91% |
| Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | PCQ | 23.7% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 41.6% | 4.7% | 17.9 pts | 98% |
| Laval-des-Rapides | PLQ | 24.1% | 42.1% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 18.0 pts | 96% |
| Prévost | PQ | 37.5% | 13.9% | 19.0% | 18.8% | 10.1% | 18.4 pts | 97% |
| Pierre-Laporte | PLQ | 23.6% | 42.5% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 18.9 pts | 98% |
| Abitibi-Ouest | PQ | 39.4% | 12.7% | 19.4% | 17.1% | 11.1% | 20.0 pts | 98% |
| Duplessis | PQ | 43.2% | 10.7% | 17.7% | 22.9% | 5.1% | 20.4 pts | 99% |
| Bertrand | PQ | 39.0% | 13.9% | 18.4% | 16.4% | 11.0% | 20.6 pts | 98% |
| La Peltrie | PCQ | 22.9% | 15.6% | 12.2% | 43.8% | 4.9% | 20.9 pts | 99% |
| Portneuf | PCQ | 22.5% | 10.1% | 18.6% | 43.5% | 4.3% | 20.9 pts | 98% |
| Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | PLQ | 18.5% | 43.1% | 4.2% | 9.7% | 22.1% | 21.0 pts | 98% |
| Berthier | PQ | 41.6% | 9.3% | 20.3% | 19.0% | 9.6% | 21.4 pts | 97% |
| Vimont-Auteuil | PLQ | 20.8% | 42.4% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 7.9% | 21.6 pts | 98% |
| Mille-Îles | PLQ | 23.4% | 45.3% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 9.2% | 21.9 pts | 98% |
| Anjou–Louis-Riel | PLQ | 21.6% | 43.7% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 22.2 pts | 98% |
| Marie-Victorin | PQ | 40.4% | 18.2% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 17.6% | 22.2 pts | 99% |
| Chauveau | PCQ | 21.2% | 13.7% | 15.3% | 44.3% | 5.0% | 23.1 pts | 99% |
| Lotbinière-Frontenac | PCQ | 21.4% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 44.9% | 5.3% | 23.5 pts | 99% |
| Fabre | PLQ | 20.1% | 44.5% | 8.3% | 18.8% | 7.8% | 24.3 pts | 99% |
| Chomedey | PLQ | 15.3% | 49.6% | 4.5% | 24.5% | 5.1% | 25.1 pts | 99% |
| Lac-Saint-Jean | PQ | 47.2% | 9.9% | 19.9% | 18.7% | 4.0% | 27.3 pts | 99% |
| Viau | PLQ | 15.3% | 50.6% | 3.3% | 8.1% | 21.3% | 29.3 pts | 100% |
| Vaudreuil | PLQ | 17.7% | 47.8% | 10.1% | 15.3% | 6.3% | 30.0 pts | 99% |
| Mont-Royal–Outremont | PLQ | 19.5% | 50.8% | 3.3% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 31.4 pts | 100% |
| Bonaventure | PQ | 49.7% | 16.5% | 17.0% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 32.7 pts | 100% |
| Camille-Laurin | PQ | 57.2% | 23.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 0.8% | 34.1 pts | 100% |
| Bellechasse | PCQ | 18.8% | 10.4% | 15.5% | 53.1% | 2.1% | 34.3 pts | 100% |
| Rimouski | PQ | 51.0% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 15.3% | 35.7 pts | 100% |
| Acadie | PLQ | 17.6% | 53.8% | 3.4% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 36.2 pts | 100% |
| La Pinière | PLQ | 16.8% | 54.1% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 6.5% | 37.3 pts | 100% |
| Bourassa-Sauvé | PLQ | 17.5% | 54.9% | 4.7% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 37.4 pts | 100% |
| Joliette | PQ | 53.2% | 9.5% | 15.5% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 37.6 pts | 100% |
| D'Arcy-McGee | PLQ | 8.5% | 59.2% | 1.8% | 20.5% | 4.5% | 38.7 pts | 100% |
| Beauce-Sud | PCQ | 14.3% | 9.3% | 17.7% | 57.2% | 1.3% | 39.6 pts | 100% |
| Beauce-Nord | PCQ | 17.1% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 57.7% | 1.3% | 40.5 pts | 100% |
| Marguerite-Bourgeoys | PLQ | 15.9% | 56.7% | 4.5% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 40.8 pts | 100% |
| Pontiac | PLQ | 15.9% | 58.4% | 3.2% | 15.2% | 5.1% | 42.5 pts | 100% |
| Gaspé | PQ | 57.2% | 13.8% | 14.5% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 42.7 pts | 100% |
| Saint-Laurent | PLQ | 13.5% | 58.3% | 3.1% | 15.4% | 6.0% | 42.9 pts | 100% |
| Marquette | PLQ | 16.0% | 60.2% | 4.1% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 44.2 pts | 100% |
| Nelligan | PLQ | 11.0% | 63.6% | 3.2% | 15.8% | 2.4% | 47.8 pts | 100% |
| Westmount–Saint-Louis | PLQ | 12.6% | 60.5% | 2.4% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 47.9 pts | 100% |
| Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | PLQ | 11.4% | 60.2% | 2.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 48.7 pts | 100% |
| LaFontaine | PLQ | 12.3% | 64.2% | 3.7% | 14.3% | 5.1% | 49.9 pts | 100% |
| Robert-Baldwin | PLQ | 8.8% | 66.3% | 2.2% | 15.6% | 2.2% | 50.7 pts | 100% |
| Jeanne-Mance–Viger | PLQ | 11.0% | 65.4% | 3.2% | 12.6% | 6.3% | 52.8 pts | 100% |
| Îles-de-la-Madeleine | PQ | 68.4% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 54.9 pts | 100% |
| Jacques-Cartier | PLQ | 9.1% | 70.5% | 2.2% | 11.4% | 2.1% | 59.1 pts | 100% |
| Matane-Matapédia-Mitis | PQ | 80.6% | 6.5% | 1.7% | 10.2% | 0.9% | 70.4 pts | 100% |
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Polls used in this publication
| Firm | Fieldwork | Sample | PQ | PLQ | CAQ | PCQ | QS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pallas Data | 2026-10-03 | 1,137 | 29.0% | 24.4% | 14.6% | 20.4% | 10.5% |
| Léger | 2026-09-30–10-01 | 1,000 | 29% | 25% | 14% | 20% | 11% |
| Synopsis Recherche | 2026-09-24–27 | 1,000 | 30% | 22% | 17% | 17% | 13% |
| Nanos Research | 2026-09-12–14 | 537 | 27.9% | 23.7% | 21.6% | 16.4% | 8.7% |
| Segma Recherche | 2026-09-08–17 | 5,572 | 29% | 19% | 22% | 18% | 12% |
| Mainstreet Research | 2026-09-11–13 | 2,145 | 24.4% | 21.5% | 28.2% | 16.6% | 7.7% |
| Research Co. | 2026-09-10–13 | 705 | 28% | 22% | 23% | 16% | 10% |
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