Maurice-Richard
Margin : 0.6 pt · PQ leading
3 parties within 5 pointsPQ28.7%
Win probability : 40%
PLQ28.1%
Win probability : 38%
QS25.1%
Win probability : 21%
PARTY · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Québec solidaire QS
According to the 127QC projection of October 1, 2026, Québec solidaire leads in 7 ridings, with 10.5% of the estimated vote (15.4% in 2022). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, Québec solidaire wins 6.5 seats on average (90% interval: 0 to 12).
Leading7ridings of 127
Simulated seats6.5average · 90%: 0–12
Most seats< 1%of simulations
Majority< 1%64 seats or more
Estimated vote10.5%−4.9 pts since 2022
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Party’s official website: quebecsolidaire.net
The trend
The 2022 result, then each poll used in the projection, from oldest to newest (published figures), then the 127QC projection. Vote for Québec solidaire.
| Source | Date | Sample | QS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 election (official result)October 3, 2022 | October 3, 2022 | — | 15.4% |
| Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 11–13 | September 11–13 | 2,145 | 7.7% |
| Research Co.September 10–13 | September 10–13 | 705 | 10% |
| Nanos ResearchSeptember 12–14 | September 12–14 | 537 | 8.7% |
| Segma RechercheSeptember 8–17 | September 8–17 | 5,572 | 12% |
| Pallas DataSeptember 25–26 | September 25–26 | 1,192 | 10% |
| LégerSeptember 25–27 | September 25–27 | 1,001 | 9% |
| Synopsis RechercheSeptember 24–27 | September 24–27 | 1,000 | 13% |
| 127QC projectionOctober 1, 2026 | October 1, 2026 | 5,000 simulations | 10.5% |
Our successive projections
Each publication is kept as is in the projection history.
| Publication | Leading | Mean seats | Estimated vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 1, 2026 · release 2 | 7 | 6.5 | 10.5% |
| October 1, 2026 | 7 | 6.5 | 10.5% |
Ridings where Québec solidaire leads 7
- Gouinlead 11.4 pt · 81%
- Hochelaga-Maisonneuvelead 10.9 pt · 80%
- Jean-Lesagelead 7.4 pt · 72%
- Laurier-Dorionlead 8.0 pt · 73%
- Mercierlead 14.5 pt · 86%
- Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacqueslead 0.8 pt · 45%
- Sherbrookelead 9.1 pt · 79%
Its close races 4
Races within 5 points between the top two, where Québec solidaire leads or is within 5 points of the leader.
View riding details
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques
Margin : 0.8 pt · QS leading
3 parties within 5 pointsQS30.1%
Win probability : 45%
PQ29.3%
Win probability : 34%
PLQ26.8%
Win probability : 21%
Saint-François
Margin : 1.2 pt · PQ leading
PQ23.7%
Win probability : 41%
QS22.4%
Win probability : 34%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue
Margin : 3.1 pt · PQ leading
PQ29.1%
Win probability : 61%
QS26.0%
Win probability : 33%
Other parties: Parti Québécois · Quebec Liberal Party · Coalition Avenir Québec · Conservative Party of Quebec
127QC is an independent project, with no ties to any political party. The link to the party’s website is provided for information. 2022 results: Élections Québec (125-riding map).