Chapleau
Margin : 0.2 pt · PLQ leading
3 parties within 5 pointsPLQ24.8%
Win probability : 38%
PQ24.6%
Win probability : 29%
CAQ23.7%
Win probability : 31%
PARTY · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Coalition Avenir Québec CAQ
According to the 127QC projection of October 1, 2026, the CAQ leads in 4 ridings, with 18.5% of the estimated vote (41.0% in 2022). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the CAQ wins 11.8 seats on average (90% interval: 1 to 31).
Leading4ridings of 127
Simulated seats11.8average · 90%: 1–31
Most seats2%of simulations
Majority< 1%64 seats or more
Estimated vote18.5%−22.5 pts since 2022
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Party’s official website: coalitionavenirquebec.org
The trend
The 2022 result, then each poll used in the projection, from oldest to newest (published figures), then the 127QC projection. Vote for the CAQ.
| Source | Date | Sample | CAQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 election (official result)October 3, 2022 | October 3, 2022 | — | 41.0% |
| Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 11–13 | September 11–13 | 2,145 | 28.2% |
| Research Co.September 10–13 | September 10–13 | 705 | 23% |
| Nanos ResearchSeptember 12–14 | September 12–14 | 537 | 21.6% |
| Segma RechercheSeptember 8–17 | September 8–17 | 5,572 | 22% |
| Pallas DataSeptember 25–26 | September 25–26 | 1,192 | 19% |
| LégerSeptember 25–27 | September 25–27 | 1,001 | 16% |
| Synopsis RechercheSeptember 24–27 | September 24–27 | 1,000 | 17% |
| 127QC projectionOctober 1, 2026 | October 1, 2026 | 5,000 simulations | 18.5% |
Our successive projections
Each publication is kept as is in the projection history.
| Publication | Leading | Mean seats | Estimated vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 1, 2026 · release 2 | 4 | 11.8 | 18.5% |
| October 1, 2026 | 4 | 11.7 | 18.5% |
Ridings where the CAQ leads 4
- Blainvillelead 1.4 pt · 54%
- Groulxlead 0.2 pt · 49%
- Repentignylead 1.1 pt · 52%
- Vachonlead 0.9 pt · 40%
Its close races 13
Races within 5 points between the top two, where the CAQ leads or is within 5 points of the leader.
View riding details
Groulx
Margin : 0.2 pt · CAQ leading
CAQ29.7%
Win probability : 49%
PQ29.5%
Win probability : 49%
La Prairie
Margin : 0.7 pt · PQ leading
3 parties within 5 pointsPQ26.6%
Win probability : 34%
CAQ25.9%
Win probability : 33%
PLQ25.7%
Win probability : 32%
Vachon
Margin : 0.9 pt · CAQ leading
3 parties within 5 pointsCAQ27.1%
Win probability : 40%
PQ26.3%
Win probability : 27%
PLQ26.0%
Win probability : 33%
Repentigny
Margin : 1.1 pt · CAQ leading
CAQ33.5%
Win probability : 52%
PQ32.4%
Win probability : 47%
Blainville
Margin : 1.4 pt · CAQ leading
CAQ30.9%
Win probability : 54%
PQ29.5%
Win probability : 43%
Other parties: Parti Québécois · Quebec Liberal Party · Conservative Party of Quebec · Québec solidaire
127QC is an independent project, with no ties to any political party. The link to the party’s website is provided for information. 2022 results: Élections Québec (125-riding map).