127QCELECTION OBSERVATORY

PARTY · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Quebec Liberal Party PLQ

According to the 127QC projection of October 1, 2026, the PLQ leads in 35 ridings, with 23.3% of the estimated vote (14.4% in 2022). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 35.6 seats on average (90% interval: 28 to 43).

Leading35ridings of 127
Simulated seats35.6average · 90%: 28–43
Most seats5%of simulations
Majority< 1%64 seats or more
Estimated vote23.3%+9.0 pts since 2022
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Party’s official website: plq.org/en

The trend

The 2022 result, then each poll used in the projection, from oldest to newest (published figures), then the 127QC projection. Vote for the PLQ.

SourceDateSamplePLQ
2022 election (official result)October 3, 2022October 3, 2022—14.4%
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 11–13September 11–132,14521.5%
Research Co.September 10–13September 10–1370522%
Nanos ResearchSeptember 12–14September 12–1453723.7%
Segma RechercheSeptember 8–17September 8–175,57219%
Pallas DataSeptember 25–26September 25–261,19223%
LégerSeptember 25–27September 25–271,00126%
Synopsis RechercheSeptember 24–27September 24–271,00022%
127QC projectionOctober 1, 2026October 1, 20265,000 simulations23.3%

Our successive projections

Each publication is kept as is in the projection history.

PublicationLeadingMean seatsEstimated vote
October 1, 2026 · release 23535.623.3%
October 1, 20263435.323.3%

Ridings where the PLQ leads 35

Its close races 10

Races within 5 points between the top two, where the PLQ leads or is within 5 points of the leader.

Chapleau

Margin : 0.2 pt · PLQ leading

3 parties within 5 points
PLQ24.8%

Win probability : 38%

PQ24.6%

Win probability : 29%

CAQ23.7%

Win probability : 31%

View riding details

Maurice-Richard

Margin : 0.6 pt · PQ leading

3 parties within 5 points
PQ28.7%

Win probability : 40%

PLQ28.1%

Win probability : 38%

QS25.1%

Win probability : 21%

View riding details

La Prairie

Margin : 0.7 pt · PQ leading

3 parties within 5 points
PQ26.6%

Win probability : 34%

CAQ25.9%

Win probability : 33%

PLQ25.7%

Win probability : 32%

View riding details

Vachon

Margin : 0.9 pt · CAQ leading

3 parties within 5 points
CAQ27.1%

Win probability : 40%

PQ26.3%

Win probability : 27%

PLQ26.0%

Win probability : 33%

View riding details

See all 10 races where the PLQ is in contention

Other parties: Parti Québécois · Coalition Avenir Québec · Conservative Party of Quebec · Québec solidaire

127QC is an independent project, with no ties to any political party. The link to the party’s website is provided for information. 2022 results: Élections Québec (125-riding map).