RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Bourassa-Sauvé
127QC projection for Bourassa-Sauvé as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 54.3% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (18.0%) and Québec solidaire (9.4%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin36.3 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Madwa-Nika Cadet incumbent
54.3%Win: > 99%PQ Edline Henri
18.0%Win: < 1%QS Mara Hermione Pierre
9.4%Win: < 1%PCQ Ismaila Marega
8.8%Win: < 1%CAQ Isabelle Lamy
8.7%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 40.1 | 54.3 | +14.2 |
| PQ | 8.7 | 18.0 | +9.3 |
| QS | 15.5 | 9.4 | −6.1 |
| PCQ | 8.9 | 8.8 | −0.1 |
| CAQ | 25.0 | 8.7 | −16.3 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Jeanne-Mance–VigerPLQ 54.5-pt margin
- Maurice-RichardPQ 0.6-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.