127QCELECTION OBSERVATORY

PARTY · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Conservative Party of Quebec PCQ

According to the 127QC projection of October 1, 2026, the PCQ leads in 15 ridings, with 17.3% of the estimated vote (12.9% in 2022). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 14.2 seats on average (90% interval: 7 to 22).

Leading15ridings of 127
Simulated seats14.2average · 90%: 7–22
Most seats< 1%of simulations
Majority< 1%64 seats or more
Estimated vote17.3%+4.4 pts since 2022
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Party’s official website: conservateur.quebec

The trend

The 2022 result, then each poll used in the projection, from oldest to newest (published figures), then the 127QC projection. Vote for the PCQ.

SourceDateSamplePCQ
2022 election (official result)October 3, 2022October 3, 2022—12.9%
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 11–13September 11–132,14516.6%
Research Co.September 10–13September 10–1370516%
Nanos ResearchSeptember 12–14September 12–1453716.4%
Segma RechercheSeptember 8–17September 8–175,57218%
Pallas DataSeptember 25–26September 25–261,19217%
LégerSeptember 25–27September 25–271,00118%
Synopsis RechercheSeptember 24–27September 24–271,00017%
127QC projectionOctober 1, 2026October 1, 20265,000 simulations17.3%

Our successive projections

Each publication is kept as is in the projection history.

PublicationLeadingMean seatsEstimated vote
October 1, 2026 · release 21514.217.3%
October 1, 20261514.317.3%

Ridings where the PCQ leads 15

Its close races 7

Races within 5 points between the top two, where the PCQ leads or is within 5 points of the leader.

See all 7 races where the PCQ is in contention

Other parties: Parti Québécois · Quebec Liberal Party · Coalition Avenir Québec · Québec solidaire

127QC is an independent project, with no ties to any political party. The link to the party’s website is provided for information. 2022 results: Élections Québec (125-riding map).