RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Verdun
127QC projection for Verdun as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 41.8% of the estimated vote, ahead of Québec solidaire (23.8%) and the PQ (18.6%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 95% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin18.0 points
Win probability95%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Antoine Dionne-Charest
41.8%Win: 95%QS Alejandra Zaga Mendez incumbent
23.8%Win: 4%PQ Elena Kozynchenko
18.6%Win: < 1%CAQ Roseline Olory
7.9%Win: < 1%PCQ Lucien Koty
6.1%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 29.3 | 41.8 | +12.5 |
| QS | 30.8 | 23.8 | −7.0 |
| PQ | 8.3 | 18.6 | +10.3 |
| CAQ | 23.0 | 7.9 | −15.1 |
| PCQ | 5.4 | 6.1 | +0.7 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Saint-Henri–Sainte-AnnePLQ 22.7-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.