ANALYSIS · 127QC
Analysis
The 2026 results under the microscope, plus articles to help you read polls, averages and projections.
Results · October 8, 2026Analysis of the October 5, 2026 results127QC’s final projection against the results: seats, vote, polls, misses and lessons for the next election.118/127ridings called correctly1.4 ptaverage error on the voteRead the analysis →Articles
2026 election · November 2, 2026 · 5 minVachon, won by 3 votes: the closest races of 2026A 10-vote Liberal lead after the count, a 3-vote PQ win after the recount. Vachon was the closest race of an election in which seven ridings were decided by fewer than 500 votes.
Explainer · October 29, 2026 · 5 minMinority government: who could bring down the PQ?With 60 of 127 seats, the Parti Québécois governs without a majority. Yet the vote count shows that no opposition party can defeat it alone: all three would have to vote together.
Explainer · October 22, 2026 · 5 minWhen is Quebec’s next election?The law sets the next general election for Monday, October 7, 2030. But with 60 of 127 seats, the Parti Québécois government is a minority, and a vote could come much sooner.
Polls · October 11, 2026 · 4 minWhich poll best measured Quebec’s 2026 election?Forum was closest on provincial vote shares; With Pallas as provincial input, the 127QC model matched its eight-poll average on riding winners.
Explainer · October 7, 2026 · 7 minDo polls influence election results?Polls measure voting intentions, but they can also shape perceptions, media coverage and party strategy. Their effect on the ballot itself is harder to pin down.No articles on this topic yet.
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